In November 2016, the Bank of England (BoE)
published the results of its 2016 banking stress tests which measured the
resilience of UK’s major banks’ balance sheet in adverse scenarios. These
incorporated a synchronised UK and global recession with associated shocks to
financial market prices, and an independent stress of misconduct costs. The
stress tests also represented the BoE’s first annual cyclical scenario (ACS), a
new approach to stress testing, which examines the resilience of the system to
a more severe stress than in previous years.
In 2017, the BoE is expected to extend stress
testing even further by including a biennial exploratory scenario which will
test the resilience of banks to risks that may not be directly linked to the
financial cycle. At a UK level, the 2017 stress test scenario also includes a
severe level of stress, with substantial impact on UK residential and
commercial property, UK GDP and unemployment. However, the impact could be even
more severe if the economic and political challenges currently facing the EU
and Eurozone were to be incorporated, such as high-debt levels, security
concerns and Brexit.